2027: It's No Longer About North & South

2027: It's No Longer About North & South; Even S/West Has Lost Its Hold on Tinubu.—Hakeem Baba-Ahmed

IODIC blogs spot. 

In an interview with Arise News, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, former Special Adviser on Political Matters to President Tinubu, gave a frank and critical assessment of the President’s chances and the political climate in Nigeria. Baba-Ahmed said while President Tinubu has the right to seek re-election in 2027 and may even succeed if he chooses to run, he does not see any meaningful value in such a move. According to him, another term would merely preserve "failure and disaster," rather than introduce any real progress for the country.

He explained that the deep-seated bitterness among Nigeria’s political elite would ultimately erase any achievements Tinubu might claim, should he remain in office. Baba-Ahmed emphasized that political rivalries are so intense that a successor from an opposing camp would wipe out Tinubu’s legacy within the first month of taking office. This, he said, reflects the level of personal animosity and political hostility that dominates the ruling class, where loyalty is fragile and survival is often prioritized over national interest.

Baba-Ahmed further argued that Nigeria’s politics is no longer a simple North versus South divide, as many politicians often claim. Instead, he said, the hardship and suffering of the Nigerian people are shared nationwide, cutting across ethnic and regional lines. In his view, the real struggle is between a small elite of about 2,000 people and the rest of the Nigerian population. These elites, he said, exploit ethnicity for their selfish gain while ordinary Nigerians face the same challenges regardless of where they come from.

He also pointed out that even within the South-West — President Tinubu’s supposed political stronghold — there is no solid claim that the region wholly supports him. Despite perceptions of a favourable environment for Tinubu, Baba-Ahmed suggested that the realities on the ground show a disconnect between the President and the people, indicating that no single region can truly "own" the presidency anymore.

In his words, "President Tinubu can choose to run or not to run. If he run, he can win but I don't see any value. He is going to continue to preserve failure and disaster. If you fail and you lose, your successor is going to wipe out everything you did in the last four years within the first one month. That's the level of bitterness that exist within the small cycle of politicians. They hate each other, they're together only because they all have to gang up together. It's virtually about 2000 people against every Nigerian and they're playing the ethnic card, they're telling Nigerians it’s North and South. It's no longer North and South anymore. The problem of a Northerner is the problem of the person in the South. There's no part of the country now that can say we can get a President that is ours. Even the South West in what appears to be a favourable disposition towards them, the South West cannot claim Tinubu."

-- Peter Bankole.